Question 1. 1.You

are given only three quarterly seasonal indices and quarterly seasonally

adjusted data for the entire year. What is the raw data value for

Q4? Raw data is not adjusted for seasonality.

Quarter Seasonal

Index

Seasonally Adjusted Data

Q1

.80

295

Q2

.85

299

Q3 1.15

270

Q4

—

271

(Points : 3)

A. 325

B. 225

C. 252

D.

271

Question 2. 2.One model of exponential smoothing

will provide almost the same forecast as a liner trend method. What are

linear trend intercept and slope counterparts for exponential smoothing?

(Points : 3)

A. Alpha and Delta

B.

Delta and Gamma

C.

Alpha and Gamma

D. Std. Dev and Mean

Question

3. 3.Why is the residual mean value

important to a forecaster? (Points : 3)

A. Large mean

values indicate nonautoregressiveness.

B.

Small mean values indicate the total amount of error is small.

C. Large

absolute mean values indicate estimate bias.

D.

Large mean values indicate the standard error of the model is small.

Question

4.4.When

performing correlation analysis what is the null hypothesis? What measure

in Minitab is used to test it and to be 95% confident in the significance of

correlation coefficient. (Points : 3)

A.

Ho: r = .05 p < .5=”” b.=”” ho:=”” r=”1″ p=”.05″ c.=”” ho:=”” r=”” ≠=”” 0=”” p≤.05=”” d.=”” ho:=”” r=”0″ p≤.05=”” question=”” 5.=”” 5.in=”” decomposition=”” what=”” does=”” the=”” cycle=”” factor=”” (cf)=”” of=”” .80=”” represent=”” for=”” a=”” monthly=”” forecast=”” estimate=”” of=”” a=”” y=”” variable?=”” (points=”” :=”” 3)=”” a.=”” the=”” estimated=”” value=”” is=”” 80%=”” of=”” the=”” average=”” monthly=”” seasonal=”” estimate.=”” b.=”” the=”” estimate=”” is=”” .80=”” of=”” the=”” forecasted=”” y=”” trend=”” value.=”” c.=”” the=”” estimated=”” value=”” is=”” .80=”” of=”” the=”” historical=”” average=”” cma=”” values.=”” d.=”” the=”” estimated=”” value=”” has=”” 20%=”” more=”” variation=”” than=”” the=”” average=”” historical=”” y=”” data=”” values.=”” question=”” 6.=”” 6.a=”” burger=”” king=”” franchise=”” owner=”” notes=”” that=”” the=”” sales=”” per=”” store=”” has=”” fallen=”” below=”” the=”” stated=”” national=”” burger=”” king=”” outlet=”” average=”” of=”” $1,258,000.=”” he=”” asserts=”” a=”” change=”” has=”” occurred=”” that=”” reduced=”” the=”” fast=”” food=”” eating=”” habits=”” of=”” americans.=”” what=”” is=”” his=”” hypothesis=”” (h1)=”” and=”” what=”” type=”” of=”” test=”” for=”” significance=”” must=”” be=”” applied?=”” (points=”” :=”” 3)=”” a.=”” h1:=”” u=”” ≥=”” $1.258,000=”” a=”” one-tailed=”” t-test=”” to=”” the=”” left.=”” b.=”” h1:=”” u=”$1.258,000″ a=”” two-tailed=”” t-test.=”” c.=”” h1:=”” u=””>< $1.258,000=”” a=”” one-tailed=”” t-test=”” to=”” the=”” left.=”” d.=”” h1:=”” p=””>< $1.258,000=”” a=”” one-tailed=”” test=”” to=”” the=”” right.=”” question=”” 7.=”” 7.the=”” ceo=”” of=”” home=”” depot=”” wants=”” to=”” see=”” if=”” city=”” size=”” has=”” any=”” relationship=”” to=”” the=”” current=”” profit=”” margins=”” of=”” the=”” company=”” stores.=”” what=”” data=”” type=”” will=”” he=”” likely=”” use=”” to=”” determine=”” this?(points=”” :=”” 3)=”” a.=”” time=”” series=”” data=”” of=”” profits=”” by=”” store.=”” b.=”” recent=”” 10=”” year=”” sample=”” of=”” profits=”” by=”” stores.=”” c.=”” recent=”” cross=”” section=”” of=”” store=”” profits=”” by=”” city.=”” d.=”” trend=”” of=”” a=”” random=”” sample=”” of=”” store=”” profits=”” over=”” time.=”” question=”” 8.=”” 8.sometimes=”” forecasters=”” get=”” lazy=”” or=”” forgetful=”” and=”” do=”” not=”” check=”” the=”” significance=”” of=”” xy=”” data=”” correlations=”” and=”” use=”” the=”” x=”” variable=”” to=”” forecast=”” y.=”” what=”” is=”” the=”” result=”” of=”” this?=”” (points=”” :=”” 3)=”” a.=”” type=”” 2=”” error=”” b.=”” autocorrelation=”” error=”” c.=”” type=”” 3=”” error=”” d.=”” type=”” 1=”” error=”” question=”” 9.=”” 9.in=”” exponential=”” smoothing=”” what=”” is=”” the=”” weight=”” of=”” the=”” alpha=”” coefficient=”” for=”” a=”” time=”” series=”” data=”” observation=”” from=”” the=”” 3rd=”” previous=”” period=”” if=”” the=”” original=”” alpha=”” value=”” is=”” set=”” at=”” .3?=”” (points=”” :=”” 3)=”” is=”” there=”” a=”” formula=”” for=”” this?=”” where=”” does=”” this=”” come=”” from?=”” a.=”” the=”” weight=”” cannot=”” be=”” calculated=”” since=”” the=”” data=”” observation=”” is=”” not=”” given.=”” b.=”” the=”” weight=”” is=”” zero=”” since=”” the=”” alpha=”” value=”” is=”” set=”” relatively=”” high.=”” c.=”” 0.125=”” d.=”” 0.103=”” e.=”” 0.084=”” question=”” 10.=”” 10.what=”” is=”” not=”” a=”” characteristic=”” of=”” a=”” random=”” data=”” series?=”” (points=”” :=”” 3)=”” a.=”” zero=”” mean=”” with=”” an=”” normal=”” distribution=”” b.=”” acf=”” lbq=”” values=”” greater=”” than=”” a=”” .05=”” confidence=”” level.=”” c.=”” non=”” autoregressive=”” observations=”” d.=”” central=”” tendency=”” question=”” 11.11.what=”” is=”” the=”” major=”” cause=”” of=”” non=”” randomness=”” (autoregressiveness)=”” in=”” business=”” data?=”” (points=”” :=”” 3)=”” a.=”” randomness=”” only=”” occurs=”” for=”” short=”” time=”” periods.=”” b.=”” random=”” events=”” such=”” as=”” storms=”” or=”” technologies=”” offset=”” over=”” the=”” long=”” run.=”” c.=”” measurements=”” naturally=”” increase=”” or=”” decrease=”” over=”” time.=”” d.=”” business=”” participantâs=”” decisions=”” and=”” work.=”” question=”” 12.12.=”” given=”” the=”” data=”” series=”” below=”” for=”” variables=”” y=”” (monthly=”” inventory=”” balance)=”” and=”” x=”” (monthly=”” sales)=”” are=”” they=”” significantly=”” correlated=”” at=”” the=”” 95%=”” confidence=”” level=”” and=”” how=”” can=”” you=”” tell?=”” (this=”” data=”” also=”” appears=”” in=”” the=”” docsharing=”” download=”” for=”” exam=”” 1=”” excel=”” worksheet=”” under=”” the=”” problem=”” 12=”” tab.)=”” ending=”” inv.=”” bal.=”” y=”” monthly=”” sales=”” x=”” 1544=”” 5053=”” 1913=”” 5052=”” 2028=”” 7507=”” 1178=”” 2887=”” 1554=”” 3880=”” 1910=”” 4454=”” 1208=”” 3855=”” 2467=”” 8824=”” 2101=”” 5716=”” (points=”” :=”” 3)=”” a.=”” yes.=”” the=”” correlation=”” coefficient=”” is=”” .873=”” that=”” is=”” greater=”” than=”” .05.=”” b.=”” yes.=”” the=”” correlation=”” p-value=”” is=”” .002=”” which=”” is=”” less=”” than=”” .05.=”” c.=”” no.=”” the=”” correlation=”” coefficient=”” is=”” above=”” the=”” p-value.=”” d.=”” no.=”” the=”” correlation=”” p-value=”” is=”” greater=”” than=”” the=”” 95%=”” confidence=”” level.=”” question=”” 13.13.you=”” have=”” forecast=”” the=”” sales=”” for=”” your=”” company=”” for=”” the=”” last=”” 12=”” months=”” and=”” the=”” forecast=”” residuals=”” are=”” shown=”” below.=”” are=”” these=”” residuals=”” to=”” be=”” considered=”” random?=”” (this=”” data=”” also=”” appears=”” in=”” the=”” docsharing=”” excel=”” worksheet=”” download=”” for=”” exam=”” 1=”” under=”” the=”” problem=”” 13=”” tab.)=”” residuals=”” -24=”” -348=”” -892=”” -62=”” -378=”” -489=”” -342=”” 34=”” 490=”” 23=”” 578=”” 198=”” (points=”” :=”” 3)=”” a.=”” yes,=”” since=”” the=”” residuals=”” randomly=”” vary=”” in=”” magnitude.=”” b.=”” yes=”” since=”” the=”” residuals=”” are=”” positive=”” and=”” negative=”” and=”” vary=”” in=”” magnitude.=”” c.=”” no,=”” since=”” the=”” residuals=”” are=”” stationary=”” and=”” vary=”” in=”” magnitude.=”” d.=”” no,=”” since=”” the=”” residuals=”” indicate=”” positive=”” slope.=”” question=”” 14.14.which=”” form=”” of=”” exponential=”” smoothing=”” can=”” result=”” in=”” a=”” naã¯ve=”” forecast?=”” (points=”” :=”” 3)=”” a.=”” winters=”” with=”” a=”” very=”” low=”” seasonal=”” coefficient.=”” b.=”” single=”” with=”” a=”” very=”” low=”” trend=”” coefficient=”” c.=”” single=”” with=”” a=”” very=”” high=”” alpha=”” value=”” d.=”” double=”” with=”” a=”” very=”” low=”” alpha=”” value=”” question=”” 15.=”” 15.what=”” primary=”” statistical=”” characteristic=”” enables=”” forecasters=”” to=”” move=”” from=”” uncertainty=”” to=”” quantifiable=”” low=”” risk=”” in=”” the=”” business=”” forecasting=”” process?=”” (points=”” :=”” 3)=”” a..=”” large=”” amounts=”” of=”” available=”” business=”” data=”” naturally=”” create=”” statistical=”” accuracy.=”” b.=”” although=”” business=”” data=”” are=”” not=”” normally=”” distributed=”” the=”” statistics=”” from=”” the=”” data=”” are=”” normally=”” distributed.=”” c.=”” statistical=”” forecasting=”” technology=”” has=”” improved=”” the=”” accuracy=”” of=”” models=”” to=”” the=”” point=”” that=”” forecast=”” will=”” not=”” be=”” needed.=”” d.=”” statistical=”” t=”” and=”” p-values=”” determine=”” the=”” model=”” accuracy.=”” question=”” 16.16.what=”” is=”” used=”” to=”” determine=”” the=”” forecast=”” model=”” confidence=”” level=”” for=”” exponential=”” smoothing=”” and=”” decomposition=”” models?(points=”” :=”” 3)=”” a.=”” the=”” significance=”” level=”” of=”” the=”” smoothing=”” constants=”” b.=”” the=”” error=”” measures=”” c.=”” the=”” residual=”” lbq=”” chi-square=”” values=”” d.=”” the=”” mean=”” of=”” the=”” residuals=”” question=”” 17.=”” 17.you=”” are=”” responsible=”” for=”” forecasting=”” your=”” companyâs=”” revenues=”” for=”” the=”” next=”” 24=”” months.=”” you=”” have=”” three=”” years=”” of=”” historical=”” monthly=”” data=”” and=”” previous=”” forecasts=”” that=”” indicate=”” that=”” the=”” company=”” revenues=”” with=”” no=”” obvious=”” seasonality=”” have=”” grown=”” significantly=”” over=”” that=”” time.=”” which=”” forecast=”” method=”” would=”” you=”” apply=”” to=”” the=”” problem?=”” (points=”” :=”” 3)=”” a.=”” 3=”” period=”” moving=”” average=”” b.=”” 12=”” period=”” moving=”” average=”” c.=”” simple=”” exponential=”” smoothing=”” d.=”” double=”” exponential=”” smoothing=”” question=”” 18.18.you=”” obtained=”” a=”” correlation=”” coefficient=”” from=”” two=”” data=”” series=”” that=”” indicates=”” a=”” p-value=”” of=”” .97.=”” can=”” you=”” be=”” 95%=”” confident=”” that=”” the=”” correlation=”” is=”” significantly=”” different=”” from=”” zero?=”” (points=”” :=”” 3)=”” a.=”” yes,=”” since=”” the=”” p=”” value=”” is=”” above=”” the=”” confidence=”” level.=”” b.=”” yes,=”” since=”” the=”” p=”” value=”” is=”” above=”” 1=”” minus=”” the=”” confidence=”” level.=”” c.=”” no,=”” since=”” the=”” p-value=”” is=”” above=”” the=”” 1=”” minus=”” the=”” confidence=”” level.=”” d.=”” no,=”” since=”” the=”” data=”” is=”” not=”” provided=”” to=”” determine=”” true=”” confidence.=”” question=”” 19.19.in=”” decomposition=”” the=”” seasonal=”” indices=”” are=”” the=”” period=”” relationships=”” between=”” what=”” two=”” data=”” series?(points=”” :=”” 3)=”” a.=”” seasonal=”” moving=”” averages=”” and=”” the=”” trend=”” data=”” series.=”” b.=”” smoothed=”” data=”” from=”” centered=”” moving=”” averaging=”” (seasonally=”” adjusted)=”” and=”” the=”” original=”” data=”” series.=”” c.=”” trend=”” data=”” and=”” the=”” cycle=”” factors.=”” d.=”” trend=”” data=”” and=”” the=”” original=”” data=”” series.=”” question=”” 20.20.if=”” you=”” have=”” trend=”” in=”” a=”” data=”” series=”” how=”” can=”” you=”” confirm=”” it=”” and=”” determine=”” if=”” it=”” is=”” statistically=”” significant”=”” (points=”” :=”” 3)=”” a.=”” autocorrelation=”” functions=”” that=”” spike=”” in=”” the=”” 4th=”” and=”” 8th=”” quarters=”” and=”” have=”” lbq=”” values=”” below=”” the=”” lbq=”” table=”” values.=”” b.=”” a=”” time=”” series=”” plot=”” that=”” shows=”” the=”” data=”” rising=”” and=”” falling.=”” c.=”” histogram=”” that=”” shows=”” the=”” data=”” centered=”” around=”” a=”” zero=”” mean=”” value=”” with=”” a=”” normal=”” distribution.=”” d.=”” autocorrelation=”” functions=”” that=”” step=”” down=”” toward=”” zero=”” and=”” have=”” lbq=”” values=”” above=”” the=”” chi-square=”” tables=”” values=”” question=”” 21.=”” 21.golfsmith=”” a=”” sporting=”” goods=”” company=”” requires=”” an=”” eight=”” quarter=”” sales=”” forecast.=”” from=”” the=”” revenue=”” data=”” below=”” (also=”” found=”” in=”” doc=”” sharing=”” under=”” exam=”” 1=”” data=”” problem=”” 21)=”” what=”” is=”” the=”” appropriate=”” exponential=”” smoothing=”” model=”” to=”” apply=”” in=”” order=”” to=”” develop=”” the=”” best=”” quarterly=”” forecast?=”” date=”” revenue=”” 3/31/2006=”” 74.810=”” 6/30/2006=”” 114.138=”” 9/29/2006=”” 93.980=”” 12/29/2006=”” 74.962=”” 3/30/2007=”” 77.663=”” 6/29/2007=”” 124.999=”” 9/28/2007=”” 106.527=”” 12/31/2007=”” 78.969=”” 3/31/2008=”” 79.236=”” 6/30/2008=”” 129.995=”” 9/30/2008=”” 101.702=”” 12/31/2008=”” 67.840=”” 3/31/2009=”” 68.793=”” 6/30/2009=”” 114.797=”” 9/30/2009=”” 90.586=”” 12/31/2009=”” 63.850=”” 3/31/2010=”” 67.649=”” 6/30/2010=”” 118.046=”” 9/30/2010=”” 93.272=”” 12/31/2010=”” 72.885=”” 3/31/2011=”” 81.515=”” 6/30/2011=”” 130.220=”” 9/30/2011=”” 100.997=”” 12/30/2011=”” 74.535=”” 3/30/2012=”” 90.456=”” (points=”” :=”” 4)=”” a.=”” double=”” exponential=”” smoothing=”” (holt's)=”” b.=”” single=”” exponential=”” smoothing=”” c.=”” 4=”” period=”” moving=”” average=”” d.=”” winter's=”” exponential=”” smoothing=”” e.=”” linear=”” trend=”” question=”” 22.22.run=”” the=”” data=”” with=”” the=”” exponential=”” smoothing=”” model=”” that=”” applies=”” and=”” obtain=”” the=”” best=”” model=”” by=”” adjusting=”” each=”” of=”” the=”” coefficients.=”” (do=”” not=”” use=”” optimal=”” arima=”” to=”” find=”” the=”” smoothing=”” coefficients.=”” make=”” sure=”” that=”” you=”” only=”” use=”” one=”” decimal=”” place=”” for=”” each=”” coefficient=”” â=”” e.g.=”” .1,=”” or=”” .2,=”” or=”” .3=”” â¦.=”” through=”” .9.)=”” what=”” coefficient=”” values=”” will=”” result=”” in=”” the=”” best=”” exponential=”” smoothing=”” result=”” and=”” the=”” lowest=”” error?=”” (points=”” :=”” 4)=”” a.=”” .9=”” level,=”” .8=”” trend,=”” .9=”” seasonal=”” b.=”” .9=”” level,=”” .5=”” trend=”” c.=”” .9=”” level,=”” .1=”” trend,=”” .1=”” seasonal=”” d.=”” .2=”” level,=”” .6=”” trend,=”” .9=”” seasonal=”” .2=”” level.=”” question=”” 23.=”” 23.what=”” is=”” the=”” rmse=”” for=”” the=”” fit=”” period=”” for=”” the=”” best=”” exponential=”” smoothing=”” model?=”” (points=”” :=”” 4)=”” a.=”” 22.63=”” b.=”” 3.75=”” c.=”” 1.31=”” d.=”” 14.06=”” e.=”” 142.76=”” question=”” 24.=”” 24.use=”” the=”” best=”” exponential=”” smoothing=”” model=”” to=”” generate=”” a=”” forecast=”” for=”” 8=”” quarters.=”” what=”” is=”” the=”” forecast=”” value=”” for=”” the=”” 8th=”” quarter?=”” (points=”” :=”” 4)=”” a.=”” 28.1=”” b.=”” 85.1=”” c.=”” 60.4=”” d.=”” 46.8=”” e.=”” 75.3=”” question=”” 25.25.the=”” fit=”” period=”” residuals=”” from=”” the=”” best=”” exponential=”” smoothing=”” model=”” are=”” autocorrelated=”” through=”” the=”” 12th=”” lag.=”” (points=”” :=”” 4)=”” a.=”” true=”” b.=”” false=”” question=”” 26.26.use=”” the=”” same=”” quarterly=”” golfsmith=”” sales=”” data=”” series=”” and=”” run=”” a=”” decomposition=”” model=”” and=”” estimate=”” 8=”” forecast=”” periods.=”” which=”” quarter=”” has=”” the=”” greatest=”” seasonal=”” sales?=”” (points=”” :=”” 4)=”” a.=”” quarter=”” 1=”” b.=”” quarter=”” 2=”” c.=”” quarter=”” 4=”” d.=”” quarter=”” 3=”” question=”” 27.=”” 27.what=”” is=”” the=”” decomposition=”” forecast=”” value=”” for=”” the=”” 8th=”” period=”” (last=”” forecast=”” quarter).=”” be=”” sure=”” to=”” adjustthe=”” forecast=”” with=”” the=”” most=”” recent=”” (last)=”” cycle=”” factor.=”” (points=”” :=”” 4)=”” a.=”” 65.0=”” b.=”” 61.5=”” c.=”” 103.8=”” d.=”” 58.2=”” e.=”” 73.2=”” question=”” 28.28.=”” are=”” the=”” decomposition=”” fit=”” period=”” residuals=”” random?=”” why=”” or=”” why=”” not?=”” (points=”” :=”” 4)=”” a.=”” no.=”” they=”” still=”” have=”” seasonality.=”” b.=”” no.=”” they=”” still=”” have=”” significant=”” cycle.=”” c.=”” yes.=”” they=”” are=”” normally=”” distributed=”” with=”” a=”” near=”” zero=”” mean.=”” d.=”” yes.=”” none=”” of=”” the=”” residuals=”” are=”” significantly=”” autoregressive.=”” question=”” 29.29.based=”” on=”” your=”” analysis=”” of=”” the=”” best=”” exponential=”” smoothing=”” and=”” cycle=”” adjusted=”” decomposition=”” forecast=”” mape=”” and=”” residual=”” analysis=”” which=”” model=”” produces=”” the=”” best=”” results=”” and=”” why?=”” (points=”” :=”” 4)=”” a.=”” the=”” exponential=”” smoothing=”” model=”” forecast=”” is=”” best=”” since=”” it=”” picked=”” up=”” cycle=”” better=”” than=”” the=”” adjusted=”” decomposition=”” forecast=”” and=”” produced=”” more=”” random=”” residuals.=”” b.=”” the=”” decomposition=”” forecast=”” is=”” best=”” since=”” it=”” picks=”” up=”” seasonality=”” much=”” better=”” than=”” the=”” exponential=”” smoothing=”” model=”” and=”” produces=”” high=”” chi-square=”” values.=”” c.=”” the=”” exponential=”” smoothing=”” model=”” is=”” best=”” since=”” it=”” has=”” lower=”” error=”” measures=”” than=”” the=”” decomposition=”” model=”” forecast=”” and=”” is,=”” therefore,=”” more=”” accurate.=”” d.the=”” decomposition=”” model=”” forecast=”” is=”” best=”” since=”” the=”” forecast=”” is=”” closer=”” to=”” the=”” hold=”” out=”” and=”” it=”” produced=”” lower=”” error=”” for=”” the=”” forecast=”” period.=”” question=”” 30.30.forecast=”” error=”” measures=”” and=”” residual=”” analysis=”” can=”” only=”” be=”” used=”” where=”” quantitative=”” forecast=”” methods=”” and=”” models=”” are=”” applied=”” to=”” data.=”” (points=”” :=”” 4)=”” a.=”” true=”” b.=”” false=””>