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There has been a great deal of controversy over the last several years regarding what types of surveillance are appropriate to prevent terrorism. Suppose a particular surveillance system has a 92% chance of correctly identifying a future terrorist and only 89% chance of correctly identifying someone who is not a future terrorist. If there are 3000 future terrorists in a population of 20 million, and one of these 20 million is randomly selected, scrutinized by the system, and identified as a future terrorist, what is the probability that he/she is not a future terrorist? Does the value of this probability make you uneasy about using the surveillance system? Explain.

- November 14, 2022 - Edwin Tunner

There has been a great deal of controversy over the last several years regarding what types of surveillance are appropriate to prevent terrorism. Suppose a particular surveillance system has a 92% chance of correctly identifying a future terrorist and only 89% chance of correctly identifying someone who is not a future terrorist. If there are 3000 future terrorists in a population of 20 million, and one of these 20 million is randomly selected, scrutinized by the system, and identified as a future terrorist, what is the probability that he/she is not a future terrorist? Does the value of this probability make you uneasy about using the surveillance system? Explain.

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